What can we expect in local politics in the upcoming year?

First, the March 3 primaries are just 60 days out. That gives advantage to incumbents – folks with name recognition and a political organization. Think John Whitehead for re-election as property assessor.

And looking at who has qualified to run, the Christian privatizers are taking on the teachers for control of the school board. Of four seats on the ballot, three are held by incumbents who are former teachers. Jennifer Owen (District 2) and Tony Norman (District 3) are finishing their first term. Their election in 2016 triggered the resignation of Superintendent Jim McIntyre. The third is Mike McMillan, a longtime board member who has voted with the teacher majority. He, too, has opposition.

Also putting the school board in play are impending mid-term resignations from Terry Hill (running unopposed to replace Brad Anders as commissioner from District 6) and Patti Bounds (running to replace Bill Dunn in the state legislature).

Turnout is problematic for March 3. Donald Trump does not face serious competition in the Republican Primary, while the Democratic nomination also might be decided. The schedule is: Feb. 3, Iowa caucuses; Feb. 11, New Hampshire primary; Feb. 22, Nevada caucuses; Feb. 29, South Carolina primary. If both presidential nominations are set by March 3, look for a low turnout in Knox County.

Prediction I – Indya Kincannon will outperform expectations in her first year as Knoxville’s mayor. Think about it. She won election despite being female, non-native and significantly outspent. She’s already made solid hires for top positions; she’s smart and strategic. And her city council aligns with her priorities.

Prediction II – Glenn Jacobs will continue to struggle as Knox County’s mayor. While personally popular, Jacobs faces a bloc of county commissioners who stand ready to oppose virtually everything he’s for. His top hires know less than he does. County mayor is Jacobs’ first public office, and he won by just 23 votes in a Republican primary split three ways.

Prediction III – Politicians are already looking past 2020 toward the big 2022 Knox County elections – judges, county mayor, several high-profile jobs. Stay tuned. It should be fun.

Sandra Clark is editor/CEO of Knox TN Today, Inc. (sandra.clark@knoxtntoday.com or 865-661-8777)