The playoffs are far, far away but Tennessee and Alabama are already face to face for what looks like a must-win game – Saturday evening, Tuscaloosa, ABC or Vol Network unless you have a ticket trimmed in gold.

The Vols are said to be a bubble team with no spare space for a setback. The Tide has a bit more wiggle room based on strength of schedule.

Coaches, in moments of truth, say “We are what the numbers say we are.”

That could be if you trust numbers. Tennessee and Alabama have 5-1 records. They are not the same. The Tide has faced the supposedly second toughest slate in the college country. Vol opposition ranks No. 47.

Ty Simpson has thrown against Louisiana-Monroe, four full-grown foes, Florida State, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Missouri, and not-so-hot Wisconsin. Three were on the road. Two were close calls.

Joey Aguilar practiced against East Tennessee State and UAB. He and his friends nailed Syracuse in Atlanta, lost to Georgia in overtime in Neyland Stadium, won at Mississippi State in overtime and nipped rejuvenated Arkansas on the green, green grass of home.

Georgia was the only ranked opponent.

Aguilar and Simpson are co-leaders in Southeastern Conference passing stats. Joey Football has more yards. Ty has two more TD passes and a higher quarterback rating. Joey has lost five interceptions (three weren’t his fault). Ty has lost one of 189 throws.

Simpson is now No. 2 in Heisman Trophy odds. Aguilar is in the middle of honorable mentions.

“Ty is a great talent that has continued to grow as a player,” said Josh Heupel. “You can see that in the way he’s playing right now. Playing with a lot of confidence, great decision maker, taking care of the football.”

Simpson can run. He is not a statue. He is not as nimble and quick as Aguilar. He has been sacked more than Aguilar. Can you believe eight times in the past two games?

Alabama has an edge in receivers. Simpson targets include three NFL prospects. One, Germie Bernard, is very optimistic, maybe overjoyed or just plain cocky.

“For us to have the opportunity to go against man-to-man, it’s a field of dreams. That’s what receivers want, one-on-one matchups.”

Ouch.

Here’s where numbers switch from questionable and uncomfortable to alarming: Alabama is third in SEC passing with an average 304 yards per game. UT has the SEC’s worst pass defense (257.8 ypg). That’s 123rd nationally.

Teams aren’t throwing against Tennessee because it is hard to run. It has allowed a disturbing 214 yards rushing per conference game.

This same spotty defense leads the nation in sacks per game (4.3) and forced fumbles (11). It has produced four defensive touchdowns.

Alas, Tennessee is No. 100 in NCAA overall defense. It is permitting 393.8 yards per game. It has developed the very bad habit of allowing big plays – 32 of 20-plus yards, second-worst in the SEC.

Interpretation: Alignment mistakes, missed tackles and blown assignments in the secondary.

All is not lost but Alabama is favored by a touchdown and a half. Tennessee has lost 10 in a row in Tuscaloosa. Vol nickel Jalen McMurray insists his team has a better defense than it has displayed.

“If 11 people do their job, that’s a hard defense to score on,” McMurray said. “But you need to trust the other people to do their job so you can execute yours. And that goes back to our playmaking. If everyone does their job, someone is going to make a play.”

The defensive back says repairs are possible, that adjustments can be made, that the Vols can get better in a hurry.

“We have a very talented and smart group. We have to do our job because we’re going against a very talented quarterback and a very talented team.”

Heupel has a somewhat similar view.

“We got to play assignment sound. You got to apply pressure to the quarterback. That’s part of creating turnovers. We’ve got to do a great job of matching up and making plays on the back end, too.

“So, there are things that we control that can allow us to go execute at a higher level.”

Good idea, Coach, that’s how to get off the playoff bubble. Don’t let these numbers discourage you but Alabama has won 36 of its past 37 home games.

Marvin West welcomes comments or questions from readers. His address is marvinwest75@gmail.com