A source recently sent me a report raising concerns about Tennessee’s Department of Children’s Services, prevention spending, and the state’s growing reliance on third-party providers.

The warning was straightforward: Tennessee has increased spending on prevention services without significantly reducing the foster care population. That is a serious claim. It is also not a simple one.

The report’s own numbers show the foster care population has declined in recent quarters. The source acknowledged that point, but argued the larger question remains unanswered: Are prevention dollars reaching families early enough to keep removal from becoming the state’s answer?

That question is not just a Nashville question. It is a Knoxville question.

Child welfare may be administered by a state agency, but it is experienced locally. It shows up when grandparents try to keep children out of foster care, teachers notice something is wrong, foster parents answer late-night calls, churches step in to help, and caseworkers make difficult decisions with real children attached to every file.

That is why the money matters. According to state budget documents, DCS operated on a budget of about $817 million in fiscal year 2018-19 — roughly $1.08 billion in today’s dollars. The recommended budget for fiscal year 2026-27 is approximately $1.58 billion.

Even after accounting for inflation, that is a substantial increase. The public question is not whether more money is being spent. The public question is whether the extra spending is reaching children before the crisis becomes custody.

Prevention is one of those words that sounds clear until someone asks what it means.

In child welfare, prevention can include substance-use treatment, mental health services, housing assistance, domestic violence intervention, parenting support, transportation assistance, and kinship care support. The label alone does not tell the public where the money went or what outcomes it produced.

For Knoxville families, the questions becomes practical.

  • If substance abuse contributed to a child entering custody, did services reach the parent before removal?
  • If housing instability was part of the crisis, did assistance arrive early enough?
  • If relatives could safely care for the child, did the system support them before state custody became necessary?

Those are measurable questions. They are also human ones.

A foster care population may rise or fall for many reasons. Children may reunify with parents. More adoptions or guardianships may occur. Fewer children may enter custody. Court processes may change.

A lower foster care number is worth noticing. But it is not the same thing as knowing why there are fewer children. That is why this cannot become a slogan.

Critics can point to rising spending and ask why challenges remain. DCS can point to recent declines in foster care and argue that progress is being made. Both may be citing real numbers.

Neither necessarily answers the question the public actually needs answered. The real measure is the relationship between spending, services, and outcomes.

Tennessee should be able to show how many families received prevention services, what services they received, and whether children were ultimately able to remain safely at home. It should be able to show whether reunifications lasted, whether guardianships remained stable, and whether children later re-entered care.

The goal is not simply a smaller number of foster care cases. The goal is for fewer children to need foster care in the first place.

This story began with a warning about DCS. For Knoxville, it should continue with a simpler question: When Tennessee says it is spending money to prevent children from entering foster care, can it show, in plain numbers, which families were reached, what problems were addressed, and whether children were able to remain safely at home?

If the answer is yes, the public should see it. If the answer is no, lawmakers should ask why.

Det. Brandon Burley (Ret.), M.P.A., is a criminal justice educator whose academic work focuses on reducing recidivism through public policy. He has authored several criminal justice books and has been published in national law enforcement publications.

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