From all appearances, whether this week or next, Oklahoma and Texas are coming into the Southeastern Conference.
Clear away the clutter. Stage a pep rally. Strike up the band. Make the best of it. This isn’t the same as breaking and entering. Not exactly.
The SEC didn’t really need the Sooners and Longhorns but the football bluebloods needed the SEC. They were leaving the sagging Big 12 and going somewhere. They aimed for the top.
ESPN thought it a nifty idea. That caused SEC godfathers to look at each other quizzically and ask “Why not?”
To give you two clichés in the same sentence, this move is not yet set in stone but there is far too much smoke for there to be no fire.
Commissioner Greg Sankey is politically wise, one shrewd Yankee diplomat. He likes his job, especially every other Friday. No way would he spend months in conversation with the famous names and not share information with his executive committee – Dr. Eli Capilouto of Kentucky, Jere Morehead of Georgia, Ron Rychlakv of Ole Miss, Dr. Kent Fuchs of Florida, Candice Lee of Vanderbilt, Sarah Reesman of Missouri and Val Littlefield of South Carolina.
The SEC has almost certainly conducted a straw poll and found 13-1 willing to extend formal invitations. Texas A&M is fretful and perhaps ticked. It made a dramatic move a decade ago to get away from Texas heavy-handedness.
No question about the Sooners and Longhorns wanting in the SEC. Famous surroundings, stability and more money are attractions. Old loyalties, painful breakup, emotional departure? Fragments of the Big 12 can sink or swim. Life preservers are on sale.
Fox and ESPN triggered the turnover. The Big 12 hired a TV consultant to ask both networks about early negotiations for the next rights cycle. The response was disappointing. The consultant was told not yet and that the value of future league games is “very, very low” and going down.
Costs keep going up. Money talks. A decline screams.
The SEC doesn’t gain all that much with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma. It has the biggest show in the football world. The enlarged footprint isn’t worth what it was a decade ago. More and more customers are rejecting TV packages stuffed with stuff they don’t want.
There are numbers. Oklahoma’s brand doesn’t have the same elite ingredients as Texas. There are several more potential viewers in Dallas, San Antonio, Houston and Austin city limits than in Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Eufaula and Sulphur.
Appearances also matter. Welcoming the big two is far better than standing by and watching them migrate to what used to be the Big 10.
How about the Pac-12? No, please no. Culturally, they are polar opposites. Do you think Oklahoma fans would go for soft classical played on a harp at wine and cheese receptions?
Texas? Possibly. Austin is more like California than it is Texas but some fans who matter are oil-well owners. They wear cowboy hats and boots.
Legal shenanigans will be necessary even in the logical move. There are contracts. Under Big 12 bylaws, if Texas and Oklahoma do give immediate notice as expected, the schools would not be permitted to formally exit until June 30, 2023.
The league has a gosh-awful buyout aimed at preventing this very thing – $80 million or more to go away. There are game contracts and more contracts. There is the Longhorn TV Network and the token $15 million a year to be dissolved. ESPN owns it.
In a moment of peace and quiet, ask yourself why would the SEC really want to expand?
How much more would ESPN pay? Would it be profitable to split the big pie 16 ways instead of 14? Does Tennessee and other teams in the bottom half of the SEC realize that the Sooners and Longhorns will make it two losses harder to reach mediocrity?
Texas and Oklahoma are no help to Alabama’s pursuit of national championships. Do Georgia, Florida and LSU really need more competition?
When Arkansas improves, it might enjoy resuming the fight with Texas. If Missouri gets within a couple of touchdowns of equality, the Tigers could request a rematch with the Sooners.
There is the basic question of how the SEC would arrange a schedule with 16 teams. Two expanded divisions or four pods of four?
How would you like an East division of Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and South Carolina?
That would put Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Ole Miss and Mississippi State in the West. Would that be fair and balanced?
Four pods? Find a way to maintain Oklahoma-Texas, Georgia-Florida and Tennessee-Alabama rivalries – or forever forfeit tradition. Of course, Alabama and Auburn must play. No way to work around Tennessee and Vanderbilt. LSU versus Mississippi has some history.
UT and UT in the same conference, another shade of orange, like it or not, things do seem to be changing. Bring it on.
Marvin West welcomes reader comments or questions. His address is marvinwest75@gmail.com