Two months and a week or so before the Tennessee opening kickoff seems a relatively safe time to assess where we are and how did we get here.
According to my independent and unofficial survey, at least half the public perception is that Year 5 is make-or-break for Butch Jones. Against Southeastern Conference foes, he is 14-18. Think about that.
Butch counts three consecutive medium bowl victories and back-to-back 8-4 records as worthy of a raise and contract extension. Many fans see it as underachievement. There is an obvious difference in his and their level of satisfaction.
Butch says the UT program is “very, very strong” in terms of consistency, sustained success, positive energy and momentum.
The coach is counting the Music City Bowl and what has happened in the last six months. He may have forgotten the Vanderbilt game. I haven’t.
Relatively clear thinkers wish the Volunteers could stop losing to Alabama – but consider it unlikely. National analysts, peering through telescopes, wonder if Tennessee can beat Kentucky. That is alarming uncertainty.
It is still debatable whether Butch Jones is good enough at football coaching to win championships in the big league. Could be titles are no longer necessary.
Butch appears to be a really good guy. He talks a good game. He is a good recruiter. His emphasis on family values is reassuring. Mothers love it.
On his scorecard are more upset losses than upset wins. The only football magic in his time at Tennessee was that Hail Mary pass to beat Georgia. Had the UT defense not collapsed, there would have been no need for such a dramatic play.
The defense was generally gruesome in the second half of last season. Be reminded that the record mileage Troy racked up in 2012, along the sad Sal Sunseri freeway, was surpassed last November. Missouri raced for 740 yards.
After a week of adjustments, the Vols were worse. Vanderbilt scored 45, most for the Commodores against an SEC opponent in 46 years. I vividly recall the jubilation on the face of coach Derek Mason. He couldn’t believe how easy Tennessee was.
Let us believe the Vols are now better but we don’t know for sure. Butch is optimistic. He says the flock of new coaches has meshed beautifully.
Butch says the quarterbacks are going to be fine. He is not haunted by Joshua Dobbs packing up and departing for Pittsburgh. The coach is counting on the talented offensive line to ease that dilemma.
Butch says he is excited about the forthcoming development of young receivers. I hope a couple of older guys manage to stay between the lines.
The law of averages implies that the defense has to be better, even without Derek Barnett. All we need are healthy tackles, dependable linebacking and defensive backs who look around now and then, just in case the football is aloft.
OK, there’s a little more to it – outside contain, improved tackling, reading keys, communications, cohesion.
Fans who feel Tennessee football has leveled off at nine wins might want to study the schedule and determine which nine these Vols can win. I’ll help: Indiana State, UMass, Southern Miss …
Fans who expected greatness should recall the Derek Dooley era and where Butch started his brick-by-brick construction project. It may never reach playoff heights but it is several floors up from the orange ceramic dog and lessons on how to take a shower.
Bottom line: The upcoming season, from this distance, appears an almost even bet on success or failure, about 52-48, maybe yes, maybe no, maybe make or break.
Jones’ future? What is your definition of good enough? What do John Currie and influential stockholders think? How much is the buyout?
Go Vols! Really go this time. We need you.
Marvin West invites reader reaction. His address is marvinwest75@gmail.com